How to Estimate 2027 Marketplace Income When You’re Self-Employed
If you freelance, drive for delivery apps, earn commissions or run a small business, estimating your income for health insurance can feel difficult. Your earnings may change every month, and the money your business brings in is not necessarily the income you should report.
For Marketplace coverage, start with your expected net self-employment income for 2027: your business income minus allowable business expenses. Then account for other income and household information requested by the application.
Here’s how to prepare a realistic estimate and keep it current throughout the year.
Do you report gross revenue or net income?
Gross revenue is the money your business earns before expenses. Net income is the amount remaining after allowable business expenses.
For example, if you expect $60,000 in business revenue and $18,000 in allowable expenses during 2027, your estimated net business income would be:
$60,000 − $18,000 = $42,000
That $42,000 is a starting point for reporting self-employment income. It is not necessarily your final Marketplace household income, because other income and applicable adjustments may also count.
Do not use your sales total, bank deposits or take-home withdrawals as a substitute for calculating business profit.
How to build your 2027 income estimate
1. Estimate revenue for the full year
Consider your existing clients, expected contracts, typical workload and seasonal patterns. Include work across all your businesses and gig platforms.
Your 2026 records can help, but adjust for changes you reasonably expect in 2027, such as raising prices, reducing hours or adding customers.
2. Estimate allowable business expenses
Use your bookkeeping records and applicable tax rules to determine which expenses reduce your business income.
Personal spending does not automatically qualify as a business expense. Expenses used partly for business and partly for personal purposes may require special treatment.
Ask a tax professional if you are unsure about a deduction. Avoid subtracting the same expense twice.
3. Include other household income
Marketplace savings depend on household income, rather than your business income alone. The application may ask about wages, unemployment compensation, investment income and other sources.
4. Keep a record of your assumptions
Write down how you calculated your estimate. Keep the records supporting it so you can explain your projection and revise it when circumstances change.
What if your income changes every month?
A slow January or a busy December should not automatically determine your entire annual estimate.
Consider the whole year, including quieter months and seasonal peaks. For example, a seasonal business expecting $5,000 in monthly net income for six months and $2,000 monthly for the other six months would project:
($5,000 × 6) + ($2,000 × 6) = $42,000
This is an illustration, not an eligibility calculation. Your application may ask separately about current monthly income and expected annual income.
Three examples of self-employed income estimates
These examples show business-income calculations before other household income or applicable adjustments.
Example | Expected annual revenue | Allowable business expenses | Estimated net business income |
Freelance designer in Texas | $54,000 | $9,000 | $45,000 |
Rideshare and delivery driver in Florida | $48,000 | $16,000 | $32,000 |
Small-business owner in Ohio | $90,000 | $52,000 | $38,000 |
The expense amounts are hypothetical. They do not establish which deductions an individual can claim or whether someone qualifies for financial assistance.
Do you include your spouse’s income?
Generally, yes. A Marketplace household usually includes the tax filer, their spouse and their tax dependents—even when some household members do not need coverage.
For example, if you project $32,000 in net business income and your spouse expects $40,000 in federal taxable wages, the combined starting amount is $72,000 before other income and applicable adjustments.
A roommate’s income generally is not included simply because you share an address. Dependent-income rules also differ, so answer the application’s questions carefully.
Married applicants generally must file jointly to qualify for premium tax credits, with limited exceptions. An offer of employer coverage can also affect eligibility for savings.
What records should you gather?
Useful records for preparing your estimate include:
Your most recent tax return and relevant business schedules
A current profit-and-loss statement
A record of business income and expenses
Client contracts and invoices
Gig-platform earnings reports
Records of wages and other household income
A self-employment ledger can be a spreadsheet, accounting report or another accurate record of income and expenses.
If the Marketplace requests verification, follow the notice’s instructions and deadline. The documents needed depend on what must be confirmed.
See Aura’s 2027 Open Enrollment document checklist for additional preparation tips.
What happens if you underestimate your income?
Premium tax credits used during the year are reconciled against the credit you actually qualify for when you file your federal tax return.
Under current IRS rules, repayment caps do not apply for tax years after 2025. If your advance premium tax credits exceed your allowable credit for 2027, you must repay the full excess amount.
For example, receiving $6,000 in advance credits but qualifying for $4,500 would leave a $1,500 excess to repay.
You may choose to use all, some or none of your estimated premium tax credit in advance. Using less in advance means paying more toward your monthly premium, but may reduce potential repayment exposure.
When should you update your estimate?
Update your Marketplace application promptly when new information changes your expected annual income—for example, after gaining a major client, losing a contract or changing your work schedule.
Updating your application helps align advance savings with your circumstances. It does not eliminate the need to reconcile tax credits when filing your return.
Frequently asked questions
Can I apply if I just started my business?
Yes. Prepare a reasonable estimate using expected work, contracts and expenses. A new business does not automatically qualify you for financial assistance.
Do I need a 1099 from every client before applying?
You do not need to wait for year-end forms to prepare an estimate. Use current records, and include reportable business income even if you do not receive a 1099.
Does a lower income always mean more savings?
No. Eligibility also depends on household circumstances, other coverage and applicable rules. Medicaid eligibility varies by state, and some adults with very low incomes may fall into a coverage gap.
Prepare for 2027 coverage with Aura Insure
Gather your income records, prepare your best estimate and compare plans beyond the monthly premium. Check deductibles, prescription coverage and whether your doctors participate in the exact plan.
Read our 2027 health insurance cost guide, then visit Aura’s 2027 Open Enrollment page to prepare for enrollment.
Aura Insure serves Texas, Florida, Ohio, Michigan, South Carolina and Georgia. Complete enrollment 100% online, without a mandatory sales call.
Last reviewed: October 5, 2026. This article provides general educational information, not individualized tax advice. Eligibility and financial assistance depend on your application and applicable rules. Consult a qualified tax professional about deductions, business structure and premium-tax-credit reconciliation.
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